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Saturday, October 5, 2013

GDP, India and the 8% frenzy

Growth  being the most fundamental aspect of us Organic beings, comes very naturally to us all. In fact the
very existence of the entire creation is underpinned on exponential expansion.To straight-jacket a phenomenon as omnipresent and universal as that to a term ,which is now increasingly discussed on
board-meetings and policy making bodies to something that is almost given pre-natal care by the journalist's
in reporting every minor fluctuation seen ,to it being a topic to snack/gossip-over ,call it over-simplification
or the indian way of being inclusive , GDP has risen from being a disinterested term lying in the corner of
an economic text-book to a super-star of sorts.Come elections and we have would have a whole host of people political/non-political/apolitical leveraging all that they can for political gains.

Growth of an economy is a Big deal. A country being in a constant growth trajectory is in itself considered to be an accomplishments , what that means is that there is enough talent/resources in the country to inspire the fellow citizens to look forward for a more prosperous future ,It is a pat on our backs every time we see a positive figure in that GDP growth section . If we were to draw  parellel's with the human growth process over a lifetime ,even an eternal optimist would have to settle for a periods of lull before he bounces back and you also have the inevitable silence of death.

So then what is the whole hoopla about the GDP growth slowing down. It has merely gone down , it is not down and out. What people do not seem to realize in all this hype is that we are still 'GROWING' yes but growing at slower pace.But does it really matter? Its a very skewed notion of thought to have growth bottled into the confines of the monitory space. Then the question that begs to be asked is why this frenzy about it. I cannot help but go back to one of the most candid and well articulated list of reasons by Ramachandra Guha of as to why India Should not , Need not and Will not become a supper power. I am more interested in why India need not become a super power

What is superpower'dome anyways.Is having a huge foreign reserve a qualifier, or is having the mightiest army in the world one.The focus seems to have shifted from innovation/contribution/ideas that drive opportunities which in turn create avenues of economic growth to fixing the the number that is a result of it. The breaking news these days make fun reading to say the least.The GDP fell below the 8% , there are indications it would never reach back to the 8% levels that we are so used to ....and the mourning builds with ticking time as experts , planning minds pitch in with their analysis and proposals.The RBI then intervenes to reduce the lending rates and BOOOM the next month the prospects brighten up and we are back on the converted 8% track. And the whole 'feel good factor' about the GDP is intact, The world will view us in good light.

The human mind ,as brilliant as it is ,comes with a user manual that is to be understood. It is devoid of intelligence ,ready to embrace  whatever you give it and totally surrender to it as being correct.This is a sort of device which you feed intelligence to and its your prerogative to ensure that you do your part rite.So then if you feed it with the intelligence that the target is 8% , it will very diligently work towards it and get it done for you. But you have not kept it abreast of the root cause of the issue which would range from supply-demand fluctuations, to inflation concerns,to regulatory irregularities.Holistic is what the data feed is expected to be if you are to expect a complete tried and tested result.

We have set our selves a target subconsciously which is impeding our own growth. What do we think are potential is or rather How limited do we think we have made our scope to be. The frenzy about this number is draining us of time that would be well utilized in resolving issues that are at the very root of it. It is sad that we as a society are have developed a herd mentality and do not have time for deep rooted analysis on why we do things the way we do it.

Here's a sample of why. The industrial revolution as we know it is one of the most significant happenings in the recent past which has arguably transformed the way we live our lives. But we all know that there are a lot of fallies to it, something that is inevitable in anything that is man-made. I find it hard to believe that in this industrial set-up there are thousands of people working under a single person. especially when the set-up is not a result of a innovative, path breaking idea.There is nothing to suggest the subordinate is in any way inferior intellectually or from a capability stand point.Yet he resigns to the fact that I have to live a life like this ,being a subordinate to others simply because this is how it has always been for generations in my family.
Its a mental-block that you develop for your selves and you end up living and dying with it.How does this hold relevance to the discussion that we are having about the GDP phenomenon. The government of the day which again is the sum-total of individual intelligence is so confined to ways and means of resolving an economic scenario that we loose out hitting the root cause of the issue.The government comes out with the statement that , there is demand out there for labor, but there are not enough people to work.The focus then
 moves to the discussion of 'is population explosion an issue after all' , because this has an positive effect to the growth of the economy.But what the population increase will bring along with it is its own problem of how do you feed them , do you have enough roads for them to ride on and more than anything , do we have enough resources for them to survive on. So this as might seem to the govt as a temporary solution , but the lack of a complete consideration of which will leave the a big hole in the Governments pocket.
Think this , why would the government not think of may be having sessions that can educate the people to make better use of their capabilities.Why not identify their forte and improve their skills, for all you know you would have found a Steve jobs who can create a company as huge if not more as Apple , which will not just solve your problem but revision your growth estimates to may be 20%.


We as humans have the unique trait of pushing the bar higher every time.A deep dive within our selves will reveal a lot more opportunities pursuing which may end up giving you a whole new different higher purpose ,voiding your current understanding. The constant introspection and questioning is what will lead you to a better quality of life and a more purposeful living.